Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.100915 0.112601 0.124701 0.138136 0.152605 0.167690 0.184575
2024-10-27 0.081698 0.098839 0.117609 0.139553 0.164365 0.191418 0.223004
2024-11-03 0.073198 0.094841 0.119667 0.149919 0.185444 0.225507 0.273754
2024-11-10 0.061726 0.085512 0.114039 0.150165 0.194066 0.245071 0.308161
2024-11-17 0.053807 0.079224 0.110946 0.152487 0.204458 0.266351 0.344602
2024-11-24 0.046648 0.072871 0.106871 0.152806 0.211817 0.283672 0.376281
2024-12-01 0.043885 0.071918 0.109384 0.161248 0.229242 0.313431 0.423502
2024-12-08 0.041544 0.071186 0.111925 0.169573 0.246527 0.343219 0.471220
2024-12-15 0.037110 0.066900 0.109146 0.170395 0.253774 0.360202 0.502968
2024-12-22 0.032016 0.061037 0.103618 0.166965 0.254990 0.369193 0.524474
2024-12-29 0.030226 0.060072 0.104971 0.173021 0.268967 0.394878 0.567700
2025-01-05 0.028209 0.058509 0.105261 0.177446 0.280699 0.417723 0.607526
2025-01-12 0.025748 0.056138 0.104422 0.180562 0.291244 0.439965 0.648057
2025-01-19 0.023300 0.053547 0.103088 0.182909 0.300846 0.461290 0.688036
2025-01-26 0.023273 0.055265 0.108655 0.195809 0.325841 0.504049 0.757389
2025-02-02 0.020768 0.052134 0.106143 0.196226 0.332784 0.522183 0.793998
2025-02-09 0.018983 0.050135 0.105307 0.199101 0.343278 0.545320 0.837656
2025-02-16 0.016976 0.047422 0.103028 0.199510 0.350019 0.563235 0.874373
2025-02-23 0.016699 0.048227 0.106851 0.209775 0.371689 0.602477 0.940877
2025-03-02 0.016407 0.048951 0.110529 0.219867 0.393257 0.641850 1.008013
2025-03-09 0.014872 0.046755 0.108773 0.220863 0.400846 0.661226 1.047433
2025-03-16 0.012835 0.043117 0.104090 0.216712 0.400302 0.668792 1.070356
2025-03-23 0.012372 0.043113 0.106183 0.224041 0.417713 0.702567 1.130471